Knowra Climate projection Climate projection A conditional simulation of possible future climate under specified greenhouse-gas emissions or other forcing scenarios. It describes outcomes if those assumptions hold, rather than predicting exactly what will happen.
Climate model : A mathematical representation of the climate system used to simulate its behavior. Climate projections use these models to translate specified forcings into simulated climate.
Climate : The statistical pattern of weather conditions in a region over a period of decades or longer. Projections describe changes in this long-term pattern, not individual weather events.
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report : The 2021–2023 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of climate science, impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Its findings synthesize global and regional projections across multiple emissions pathways.
Climate prediction : A statement about the climate expected to occur, based on initial conditions and estimates of future forcing. Projections are conditional on specified scenarios; predictions also make claims about which future is expected.
Representative Concentration Pathway : A greenhouse-gas concentration trajectory used in climate modeling, defined by its approximate radiative forcing in 2100. These pathways supplied forcing scenarios for many projections published in the IPCC Fifth Assessment.
Weather forecasting : The use of observations and atmospheric models to estimate future weather over days to weeks. Unlike weather forecasts, climate projections do not specify the exact sequence of future weather.
Climate risk assessment : An analysis of potential climate-related hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and resulting risks. Projections provide future hazard estimates used to assess climate risks.
Climate attribution : The analysis of how human and natural influences contributed to an observed climate event or trend. Attribution explains past or present changes, whereas projections simulate possible future changes.
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways : A set of narratives and quantitative pathways describing alternative global socioeconomic development through 2100. These pathways pair socioeconomic futures with emissions scenarios for newer climate projections.
Climate variability : Fluctuations in climate conditions across time and space, including variations that occur without long-term external forcing. Natural fluctuations can obscure or amplify the long-term changes shown in projections.
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