Climate variability

Climate variability is the natural fluctuation of climate conditions across seasons, years, or longer periods, distinct from a persistent shift in climate averages.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation: A recurring tropical Pacific climate pattern involving coupled changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. Its El Niño and La Niña phases drive prominent year-to-year shifts in global temperature and rainfall.
Climate: The statistical description of atmospheric conditions in a region over an extended period. Climate variability describes fluctuations within this broader statistical picture.
Seasonal forecasting: Prediction of average climate conditions for the coming months, typically expressed probabilistically. Forecasts often rely on recurring patterns such as ENSO to anticipate near-term variability.
Extreme weather: Weather events that are rare or unusually intense relative to a specified local or regional reference. Natural variability can produce extremes even without a persistent change in climate averages.
North Atlantic Oscillation: A fluctuation in the pressure difference between the Icelandic low and Azores high, affecting North Atlantic weather patterns. Its phases redistribute winter temperatures and storms across Europe and eastern North America.
Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a particular time and place, including temperature, precipitation, and wind. Individual weather events are short-lived; variability concerns patterns across longer spans.
Drought: A prolonged period of unusually low water availability relative to local conditions and needs. Natural shifts in precipitation and temperature can initiate or intensify drought.
Global warming hiatus: A period in the early twenty-first century when the rise in global mean surface temperature temporarily slowed. Ocean variability helped explain the slowdown without ending the long-term warming trend.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: A pattern of Pacific sea-surface temperature variability whose phases persist for years to decades. It illustrates how ocean variability can shape climate over longer periods than typical seasonal cycles.
Climate normal: A standard reference average of climate variables, commonly calculated over a 30-year period. Variability is assessed around reference conditions such as these averages.

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