Cliometrics

Cliometrics applies economic theory and quantitative methods to historical questions, using models and data to explain long-run economic and social change.

Economic history: The study of economic activity and institutions across time. Cliometrics is a quantitative, theory-driven approach within this broader field.
Time on the Cross: Robert Fogel and Stanley Engerman’s 1974 quantitative study of American slavery. Its claims about slaveholders’ efficiency made cliometric controversy visible to a broad audience.
Robert Fogel: An American economic historian who pioneered quantitative studies of slavery, railroads, and growth. His counterfactual analyses became signature examples of cliometric method.
Historical institutionalism: An approach explaining political and economic outcomes through institutions and their historical development. It often foregrounds institutional processes where cliometrics emphasizes formal models and measurable outcomes.
Econometrics: The use of statistical methods to estimate relationships in economic data. Cliometricians adapt econometric tools to historical evidence and questions.
Railroads and American Economic Growth: Robert Fogel’s 1964 study measuring the economic contribution of American railroads. It used a counterfactual transport network to challenge claims about railroads’ indispensability.
Douglass North: An American economic historian who studied institutions and their effects on economic performance. His institutional explanations helped broaden cliometrics beyond prices and production.
Annales School: A historical movement emphasizing long-term social structures, geography, and everyday life. Its broad structural history differs from cliometrics’ reliance on economic theory and quantification.
Counterfactual history: The analysis of alternative historical outcomes that did not occur. Cliometric models estimate how history might have changed without a particular event or institution.
The New Economic History: The postwar movement that introduced formal economic theory and quantitative methods into history. Cliometrics developed as the defining method of this movement.

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