Cognitive bias

A systematic pattern of deviation from rational judgment or objective evaluation, arising from how people perceive, remember, and process information.

Heuristics: Mental shortcuts that simplify judgments and decisions, often using limited information. Many biases arise when efficient shortcuts mislead under particular conditions.
Framing effect: A change in choice caused by presenting equivalent information in different ways. Different descriptions of the same outcome can produce different decisions.
Daniel Kahneman: An Israeli-American psychologist whose research on judgment under uncertainty helped establish behavioral decision research. His work with Amos Tversky mapped recurring errors in intuitive judgment.
Rational choice theory: A framework modeling choices as consistent selections that maximize preference satisfaction under constraints. Its idealized predictions provide a benchmark for identifying systematic deviations.
Availability heuristic: A judgment shortcut that estimates likelihood by how easily examples come to mind. It explains why vivid or recent events can seem more common than they are.
Dunning–Kruger effect: A proposed pattern in which people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence. It illustrates how limited self-assessment can distort judgments of one’s own skill.
Amos Tversky: An Israeli cognitive and mathematical psychologist known for research on judgment, decision-making, and prospect theory. His experiments helped demonstrate systematic departures from expected-utility reasoning.
Ecological rationality: The view that a decision strategy’s rationality depends on how well it fits its environment. It challenges the assumption that a shortcut is irrational regardless of context.
Anchoring effect: A tendency for an initial value or piece of information to influence later estimates. An early number can pull judgments toward itself even when it is irrelevant.
Hindsight bias: A tendency to see an event as having been predictable after learning its outcome. Knowing what happened can make uncertain past events seem inevitable.

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