Counterfactual

A conditional claim about what would have happened under circumstances that did not occur. It compares an actual situation with a specified alternative.

Conditional: A statement expressing that one proposition holds if another condition is met. Counterfactuals are conditionals whose antecedents describe circumstances that did not occur.
Stalnaker–Lewis Semantics: An approach that evaluates counterfactuals by considering the closest possible worlds where their antecedents hold. It explains why an alternative's similarity to actuality matters when judging a counterfactual.
Potential Outcomes Framework: A framework that assigns each unit an outcome under every possible treatment condition. It defines an individual's treatment effect by comparing observed and counterfactual potential outcomes.
Indicative Conditional: A conditional statement presented as an open or factual possibility, typically using indicative verb forms. Unlike a counterfactual, its antecedent is not presented as contrary to fact.
Possible World: A complete way reality might have been, used to analyze possibility and necessity. Possible-world semantics evaluates a counterfactual by comparing the actual world with relevant alternatives.
Structural Causal Model: A system of variables and equations representing causal relationships and their dependence on external inputs. Its equations let analysts replace a condition and derive the resulting counterfactual outcome.
Average Treatment Effect: The average difference between potential outcomes under treatment and under no treatment in a population. It aggregates counterfactual comparisons to estimate a treatment's population-level effect.
Counterfactual Thinking: The mental process of imagining alternatives to events that have already occurred. It is the cognitive activity that produces or uses counterfactual claims.
Antecedent: The clause or proposition that supplies the condition in a conditional statement. Its unrealized circumstances define the alternative considered by a counterfactual.
Intervention: A deliberate change to a variable in a causal system, treated as independent of its usual causes. Intervening on a variable formalizes the hypothetical change in many causal counterfactuals.

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