Deterrence

Deterrence is a strategy for preventing an action by threatening costs intended to outweigh its expected benefits. Its success depends on the threat being credible and understood.

Credibility: Credibility is the quality of being believed or trusted. A deterrent threat matters only if its target believes it will be carried out.
Game theory: Game theory studies strategic choices among actors whose outcomes depend on one another’s actions. Deterrence is a strategic interaction between a threatening party and a potential actor.
Nuclear deterrence: Nuclear deterrence seeks to prevent attack by threatening nuclear retaliation. It is the most consequential application of threats based on potentially catastrophic costs.
Cuban Missile Crisis: The Cuban Missile Crisis was a 1962 confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union over Soviet missiles in Cuba. The crisis tested whether threats and restraint could avert nuclear escalation.
Compellence: Compellence seeks to make an opponent take an action, or stop an ongoing action, through pressure. Unlike deterrence, it demands a change rather than preventing an action from beginning.
Signaling (game theory): Signaling is the communication of information through actions or messages in strategic interactions. States use words, deployments, and tests to convey resolve and capability.
Rational choice theory: Rational choice theory models decisions as choices among options according to preferences and constraints. The basic deterrence model assumes actors compare the expected costs and benefits of action.
Extended deterrence: Extended deterrence is a commitment to deter attacks on an ally by threatening consequences from the protecting state. It applies deterrence when the threatened party is an ally rather than the state making the threat.
Berlin Crisis of 1961: The Berlin Crisis of 1961 was a Cold War confrontation that culminated in the construction of the Berlin Wall. Military signaling and commitments shaped the risks of challenging access and control in Berlin.
Disarmament: Disarmament is the reduction or elimination of military weapons and capabilities. It reduces the means for attack rather than relying on threatened consequences to restrain their use.

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