Economic forecasting

Economic forecasting uses data and models to estimate future economic conditions or outcomes, such as inflation, growth, unemployment, and interest rates.

Time-series analysis: Statistical methods that analyze observations ordered over time to identify patterns and make predictions. Many economic forecasts extrapolate trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns in historical data.
Gross domestic product: The monetary value of final goods and services produced within a country during a period. GDP growth is a central target for forecasts of economic activity.
Macroeconomic policy: Government and central-bank actions intended to influence economy-wide outcomes such as inflation, employment, and growth. Policymakers use forecasts to anticipate conditions and compare possible interventions.
Economic prediction: A claim about a future economic outcome, which may or may not come from a formal forecasting model. The distinction separates model-based estimates from broader claims about what will happen.
Econometric model: A statistical model that represents economic relationships and estimates them using observed data. Econometric models translate assumptions about economic relationships into forecast equations.
Consumer price index: A measure of average price changes over time for a defined basket of consumer goods and services. Forecasts use consumer prices to estimate inflation and purchasing-power changes.
Monetary policy: Central-bank actions that influence money, credit, and interest rates to pursue economic objectives. Inflation and activity forecasts help central banks set policy rates.
Economic projection: A conditional estimate of future economic outcomes based on specified assumptions or policies. Projections often describe what follows if assumptions hold, rather than the most likely outcome.
Forecasting: The process of estimating future values or events from available information. Economic forecasting is one domain within the broader practice of forecasting.
Unemployment rate: The share of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking work. Its movements are a key outcome in forecasts of labor-market conditions.

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