Excess mortality

Excess mortality is the number of deaths above those expected under normal conditions in a population and period. It can capture both direct and indirect effects of crises.

Expected mortality: The number of deaths predicted for a population and period under specified baseline conditions. Excess mortality is calculated by comparing observed deaths with this baseline.
COVID-19 pandemic: The global outbreak of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, beginning in 2019. Pandemic excess-death estimates include deaths missed by cause-specific reporting.
Cause-specific mortality: The number or rate of deaths assigned to a particular cause. Excess mortality captures deaths across causes, including those misclassified or indirect.
Death registration: The official recording of deaths and their details by public authorities. Uneven registration coverage limits comparisons across places and periods.
Observed mortality: The deaths recorded in a population during a defined period. These recorded deaths are compared with expected mortality to estimate the excess.
Spanish flu: The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic, which caused a large worldwide wave of deaths. Historical mortality estimates use excess deaths to assess the pandemic's scale.
Case fatality rate: The proportion of people diagnosed with a disease who die from it during a specified period. It measures risk among diagnosed cases, not deaths above a population baseline.
Counterfactual: A description of what would have happened under conditions that did not occur. Expected deaths represent a modeled counterfactual, not a directly observed count.
Age standardization: A statistical adjustment that compares populations using a common age distribution. It helps distinguish changes in mortality from shifts in population age structure.
Heat wave: A period of unusually high temperatures lasting for several days or longer. Excess deaths can measure heat's toll beyond deaths officially attributed to heat.

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