Existential risk

An existential risk is a threat that could cause human extinction or permanently destroy humanity’s potential to develop and flourish.

Human extinction: The permanent disappearance of every living human being. One direct outcome that makes a threat existential.
Expected utility: A decision rule that evaluates options by averaging their utility across possible outcomes, weighted by probability. It explains why even low-probability extinction scenarios can weigh heavily in decisions.
Existential risk assessment: The systematic evaluation of threats that could cause human extinction or permanently destroy humanity’s potential. It organizes comparison of hazards, pathways, and possible interventions.
Nick Bostrom: A Swedish philosopher known for work on superintelligence, human enhancement, and existential risk. His arguments helped make technological threats and humanity’s long-term future central research topics.
Fermi paradox: The apparent contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of observed evidence for them. Some explanations invoke filters that could also illuminate humanity’s own survival prospects.
Global catastrophic risk: A threat capable of causing worldwide devastation without necessarily ending humanity or its long-term potential. Existential risks are the subset of global catastrophes with irreversible human consequences.
Pascal's mugging: A decision-theory puzzle in which an implausibly large promised payoff can dominate expected-value calculations despite tiny probability. It exposes how extreme outcomes can distort risk estimates when probabilities are poorly grounded.
Biosecurity: Practices and policies that prevent the accidental release, theft, or deliberate misuse of biological agents. It can reduce risks from engineered or naturally emerging pathogens.
Toby Ord: An Australian philosopher whose work examines global priorities and risks to humanity’s future. His analysis compares existential threats and possible ways to reduce them.
Great Filter: A hypothesized barrier that makes the emergence of observable technological civilizations extremely rare. Whether the hardest filter lies ahead bears on the likelihood of civilization-ending transitions.

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