Groupthink

Groupthink is a pattern of flawed decision-making in which pressure for consensus suppresses critical evaluation. It can lead cohesive groups to overlook risks and alternatives.

Irving Janis: An American psychologist who developed the influential theory of groupthink. His analysis of policy failures established the framework used to explain this pattern.
Bay of Pigs Invasion: A failed 1961 attempt by Cuban exiles, backed by the United States, to overthrow Fidel Castro. Janis used the planning failure as a central case in his theory.
Devil's advocate: A person or role tasked with challenging a proposal by presenting objections. Formal opposition can expose weaknesses that consensus pressure might otherwise hide.
Group polarization: The tendency for group discussion to shift members toward a more extreme version of their initial inclination. Polarization intensifies a group’s position; groupthink centers on consensus suppressing evaluation.
Conformity: The adjustment of beliefs or behavior to align with a group or social norm. Conforming members may withhold doubts that would challenge apparent consensus.
Pearl Harbor attack: A Japanese military strike on the United States Pacific Fleet in Hawaii on December 7, 1941. Janis examined failures to heed warnings before the attack as a case of defective group decision-making.
Dialectical inquiry: A decision method that develops and debates competing proposals before choosing among them. Structured opposition makes alternatives part of deliberation rather than a threat to unity.
Common knowledge effect: The tendency for groups to discuss shared information more than information known by only one member. It explains how unique evidence gets overlooked without requiring pressure to agree.
Pluralistic ignorance: A situation in which people privately reject a norm but mistakenly believe others accept it. Members can mistake others’ silence for genuine agreement.
Cuban Missile Crisis: A 1962 confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union over Soviet missiles in Cuba. Janis contrasted the administration’s deliberations during this crisis with the Bay of Pigs decision.

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