Madman theory

Madman theory is a coercive strategy in which a leader cultivates an image of unpredictability or irrationality to make adversaries fear extreme action.

Connect

Coercive diplomacy: The use of threats or limited force to persuade an opponent to change its behavior. Madman theory is a coercive-diplomacy tactic that seeks compliance through uncertainty about escalation.
Richard Nixon: The 37th president of the United States, who served from 1969 to 1974. Nixon discussed projecting unpredictability to North Vietnam during the Vietnam War.
Rational deterrence theory: An approach to deterrence that models states as calculating actors responding to expected costs and benefits. Madman theory complicates this model by making an opponent doubt predictable calculation.
Crisis stability: A condition in which neither side gains an incentive to strike first during a crisis. Threats of uncontrolled escalation can weaken the restraint that keeps crises stable.
Deterrence theory: The strategy of preventing an action by threatening costs an opponent expects to outweigh its gains. Both seek to shape choices through anticipated consequences, but madman tactics stress uncertainty about those consequences.
Henry Kissinger: An American diplomat and political scientist who served as national security adviser and secretary of state. Kissinger helped communicate Nixon’s supposed volatility to Soviet and North Vietnamese leaders.
Strategic ambiguity: A policy of leaving uncertain whether or how a state would respond in a particular situation. It preserves uncertainty about policy, whereas madman theory centers on the leader’s apparent temperament.
Miscommunication: A failure to convey or interpret information as intended. Adversaries may mistake theatrical unpredictability for a genuine decision to escalate.
Brinkmanship: A strategy of pushing a dangerous confrontation close to the point of disaster to pressure an opponent. An apparent willingness to accept uncontrolled escalation can make a threat seem more credible.
Operation Giant Lance: A 1969 U.S. nuclear alert involving B-52 bombers near the Soviet Union. The alert was part of Nixon’s attempt to signal resolve during the Vietnam War.