Predictive validity

Predictive validity is the extent to which a test score forecasts performance on a relevant future task or outcome. It is assessed by relating scores to outcomes measured later.

Criterion validity: The degree to which test scores correspond to a relevant external criterion. Predictive validity is the time-ordered form of criterion validity.
Personnel selection: The process of choosing applicants for employment using information about their likely job performance. Employment tests are often evaluated by whether scores forecast later job performance.
Concurrent validity: The extent to which a test score corresponds to a criterion measured at roughly the same time. Unlike predictive validity, it does not require measuring the criterion later.
Validity generalization: The study of whether a test’s predictive validity holds across settings, jobs, or populations. A coefficient from one setting may not transfer to another.
Predictor–criterion correlation: A statistical association between a test score and an external outcome measure. This association is the basic evidence used to estimate predictive validity.
Educational assessment: The systematic measurement of learners’ knowledge, skills, or progress. Educational tests may be judged by their prediction of later achievement.
Content validity: The degree to which a measure’s items adequately represent the domain it is intended to assess. Content coverage concerns what a test samples, not how well it forecasts future outcomes.
Base rate: The frequency of an outcome in a population before considering a predictor. A useful predictor can still yield many wrong decisions when outcomes are rare.
Criterion measure: An external measure used to evaluate how well a test represents or predicts relevant performance. Future performance must be measured with a criterion suited to the prediction.
College admissions: The process of selecting students for entry to higher education institutions. Admissions tests are examined for how well they forecast subsequent academic outcomes.

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