Knowra Robert J. Shiller Robert J. Shiller Robert J. Shiller is an American economist whose research on asset prices, financial markets, and behavioral finance earned him the 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
Efficient-market hypothesis : The hypothesis that asset prices rapidly incorporate available information, making persistent excess returns difficult to achieve. Shiller challenged strong versions by documenting price movements difficult to explain through changing fundamentals.
Excess volatility : The finding that asset prices fluctuate more than changes in expected future cash flows can explain. Shiller’s 1981 study established this pattern for stock prices using subsequent dividends.
George Akerlof : An American economist whose research on information asymmetry and behavioral economics earned the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize. Akerlof and Shiller collaborated on how psychological motives shape economic behavior.
Case–Shiller index : A family of U.S. home-price indexes based on repeat sales of the same properties. Shiller helped develop the index, which tracks housing prices while accounting for property differences.
2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences : The economics prize awarded to Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, and Robert J. Shiller for empirical analysis of asset prices. The award recognized Shiller’s contributions alongside work that reached different conclusions about markets.
Present value : The current worth of future cash flows discounted to reflect their timing and risk. Shiller used discounted dividends to test whether stock prices varied as much as fundamentals warranted.
Feedback loop : A process in which an outcome influences the conditions that produce further outcomes. Rising prices can encourage optimism and buying, which may push prices higher still.
John Campbell : An American financial economist known for research on asset pricing, household finance, and macroeconomics. Campbell and Shiller developed influential methods for relating stock prices to future dividends.
CAPE ratio : A stock-valuation measure comparing prices with average inflation-adjusted earnings over ten years. Shiller popularized this long-run valuation measure, also called the Shiller P/E.
Behavioral economics : The study of how psychological, social, and cognitive factors shape economic decisions. Shiller’s market research helped bring behavioral explanations into mainstream economic analysis.
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