Tropical cyclone forecasting

Tropical cyclone forecasting predicts storm formation, track, intensity, and hazards by combining observations, numerical models, and expert analysis.

Numerical weather prediction: Computer simulations that predict atmospheric conditions by solving equations governing the atmosphere. Global and regional simulations supply the evolving storm and environment forecasts used in cyclone guidance.
Hurricane hunter: An aircraft and its crew that collect in situ measurements within tropical cyclones and nearby environments. Reconnaissance flights measure winds, pressure, and thermodynamic structure unavailable from satellites alone.
Tropical cyclone warning: An official alert that tropical cyclone conditions are expected in a specified area within a stated time. Warnings translate forecast positions and timing into actionable notices for exposed communities.
Tropical cyclone forecast cone: A map graphic showing the probable path of a tropical cyclone’s center over a forecast period. The cone represents track uncertainty, not the full extent of wind, rain, or other hazards.
Tropical cyclone track forecast: A prediction of a tropical cyclone’s future position and movement. Track guidance estimates where the cyclone’s center will travel and when it may approach land.
Dropsonde: A sensor package released from an aircraft that transmits atmospheric measurements as it descends by parachute. Dropsondes provide vertical profiles used to analyze storm structure and surrounding steering winds.
Storm surge: An abnormal rise of seawater above the predicted astronomical tide, driven mainly by a storm’s winds and pressure. Forecast surge models convert storm scenarios into estimates of coastal inundation.
Forecast verification: The assessment of forecasts by comparing predictions with observed outcomes using defined measures. Verification distinguishes genuine skill from errors hidden by broad averages or changing baselines.
Tropical cyclone intensity forecast: A prediction of a tropical cyclone’s future maximum sustained winds or strength category. Intensity guidance estimates strengthening or weakening, a distinct challenge from predicting storm motion.
Weather satellite: An orbiting platform that observes Earth’s atmosphere, clouds, and surface using remote sensors. Satellite imagery and soundings monitor storms over oceans where conventional observations are sparse.

Linked from 6 pages