Tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting

Tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting predicts where, when, and how much rain a tropical cyclone will produce using storm observations, atmospheric models, and rainfall analysis.

Tropical cyclone structure: The arrangement of a tropical cyclone’s eyewall, rainbands, circulation, and surrounding wind field. Storm structure organizes where heavy rain forms and how it is distributed.
Weather radar: A remote-sensing instrument that detects precipitation and estimates its location and intensity. Radar tracks rainbands and rainfall rates where coverage is available.
Tropical cyclone rainbands: Curved bands of showers and thunderstorms that spiral around a tropical cyclone’s center. Rainband placement creates localized rainfall maxima that forecasts must resolve.
Tropical cyclone track forecasting: The prediction of a tropical cyclone’s future path and position. A skillful track forecast does not guarantee accurate rainfall placement or totals.
Precipitation bias correction: The adjustment of systematic errors in precipitation estimates or forecasts using statistical methods. Model rainfall biases can distort both forecast totals and estimated flood risk.
Atmospheric moisture: Water vapor in the atmosphere, measured through humidity and related quantities. Moisture supply helps determine rainfall intensity and persistence.
Satellite precipitation measurement: The estimation of precipitation from satellite observations of clouds and atmospheric radiation. Satellites provide broad rainfall coverage over oceans beyond ground-radar range.
Flash flood forecasting: The prediction of rapid flooding caused by intense rainfall over a short period. Cyclone rain can trigger flash floods far from the coast and storm center.
Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting: The prediction of future tropical cyclone wind strength and related intensity measures. Wind intensity is not a direct measure of rainfall amount or its geographic distribution.
Extreme precipitation: Precipitation that is unusually intense or persistent relative to a defined climate or statistical baseline. The most damaging cyclone rain events challenge models and historical reference data.

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Tropical cyclone forecastingBroader topic: Rainfall forecasts address flooding hazards that can occur far from the storm’s center.