Tropical cyclone track forecasting

Tropical cyclone track forecasting predicts a storm’s future positions and path from observations, atmospheric models, and forecasting methods. Its accuracy depends on both storm behavior and the evolving surrounding atmosphere.

Steering flow: The large-scale atmospheric winds that guide a tropical cyclone’s movement. Forecast models estimate these winds to predict the cyclone’s direction and speed.
Tropical cyclone: A rotating, organized low-pressure system that forms over warm tropical or subtropical waters. Track forecasting predicts the movement of this storm system as a whole.
Tropical cyclone warning: An official alert that tropical cyclone conditions are expected in a specified area. Predicted paths help determine which places require warnings and when.
Tropical cyclone track forecast skill: A measure of how well tropical cyclone track forecasts perform relative to a reference forecast. Skill scores show where track prediction has improved and where it still falls short.
Numerical weather prediction: The use of computer simulations of atmospheric physics to forecast weather. Most operational track guidance comes from simulations of the evolving atmosphere.
Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting: The prediction of how a tropical cyclone’s maximum winds or strength will change over time. Intensity and track are distinct forecast problems, even though they share observations and models.
Hurricane preparedness: Measures taken by people and institutions to reduce harm from hurricanes. Track forecasts inform decisions about supplies, shelter, and protective actions.
Tropical cyclone rapid intensification: A substantial increase in a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds over a short period. Rapid intensity changes can alter storm structure and complicate predictions of its movement.
Data assimilation: Methods for combining observations with a model’s estimate of a system’s state. It initializes forecast models with the cyclone and environmental conditions actually observed.
Tropical cyclone best track: A post-storm record of a tropical cyclone’s estimated positions and intensities over time. Best-track records provide the reference positions used to assess past track forecasts.

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Tropical cyclone rainfall forecastingCompared with: A skillful track forecast does not guarantee accurate rainfall placement or totals.